Infinitely more ripped off than a skin shard, since all long time players own every champion already and effectively get nothing at all from them. Champion shards should be removed _entirely_ from the chests since excess champion shards were made the main method of obtaining champions.
It'd be a smart business decision too, since they already made the poor decision of decreasing orange essence payout. Guaranteeing skins, even if they stuck with the formula they currently used-- which I know without a doubt has a higher chance to give you skin shards you either already own or already own skins on the champion for-- would allow them to make money from anyone who likes to gamble. And if they get an Ultimate skin shard? So what? Still not losing potential profits, since they'd need to buy more chests for the orange essence to craft it anyway.
But as is, there is no incentive at all, especially among long time players, to buy chests. No reason to go for the gamble when the odds are stacked heavily against you even getting anything at all for your money. Anyone should be able to see the flaw in asking for free content for free as a _replacement_ for getting paid content for free.