@Riot Medieval Twitch/ Grey Warwick rarity from Honor Capsules?

We talking gemstone rarity? 10x gemstone to earn hextech skin rarity? Legendary skin in hextech crafting rarity? 1/~760 skins rarity? Key fragment rarity ;) ? Speaking honestly, from one developer to a Twitch main, will I have a better chance at making challenger this year or will I actually be able to get the gem of the Twitch skin collection in a reasonable amount of time (I'd rate that at maybe 1 years worth of honor capsules or less)?
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